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The “Big Five” Mass Extinctions

1982
  • David M. Raup
  • Jack Sepkoski
Paleontologist excavating dinosaur fossils in geological layers illustrating mass extinctions.

(generated image for illustration only)

The “Big Five” are five major extinction events in Earth’s history where over 75% of species disappeared in a geologically short interval. Identified by Jack Sepkoski and David M. Raup, they are the Ordovician–Silurian, Late Devonian, Permian–Triassic, Triassic–Jurassic, and Cretaceous–Paleogene events. These events profoundly reshaped the biosphere, creating opportunities for new life forms to radiate.

The concept of the “Big Five” mass extinctions emerged from statistical analysis of the fossil record, primarily marine invertebrates, by paleontologists David M. Raup and Jack Sepkoski in a 1982 paper. They compiled a massive database of fossil genera, which allowed them to track biodiversity levels through the Phanerozoic Eon. Their analysis revealed that while extinction is a continuous process (background extinction), there were five distinct intervals where the rate of extinction spiked dramatically. These are: 1) The End-Ordovician (c. 443 Ma), which saw the demise of about 85% of marine species, likely due to rapid glaciation and subsequent sea-level fall. 2) The Late Devonian (c. 372 Ma), a prolonged crisis that eliminated about 75% of species, possibly linked to anoxia and volcanism. 3) The End-Permian or “Great Dying” (c. 252 Ma), the most severe, wiping out over 95% of marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species, strongly associated with the Siberian Traps volcanism. 4) The End-Triassic (c. 201 Ma), which eliminated around 80% of species, paving the way for dinosaurs to dominate, linked to the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province. 5) The End-Cretaceous (K-Pg) (c. 66 Ma), which famously killed the non-avian dinosaurs and about 76% of all species, attributed to the Chicxulub asteroid impact.

This framework was revolutionary because it shifted the focus from gradual, Darwinian competition to the role of catastrophic events in shaping the history of life. It highlighted that major evolutionary radiations, like the rise of mammals after the K-Pg event, were often contingent on the ecological opportunities created by mass extinctions. The “Big Five” model provides a critical baseline for assessing the severity of the current human-caused biodiversity crisis, often termed the “Sixth Extinction.”

UNESCO Nomenclature: 2508
– Geology

Type

Abstract System

Disruption

Foundational

Usage

Widespread Use

Precursors

  • Georges Cuvier’s theory of catastrophism
  • Charles Lyell’s principles of uniformitarianism
  • Charles Darwin’s theory of evolution by natural selection
  • the development of the geologic time scale
  • advances in radiometric dating techniques

Applications

  • provides a framework for studying the causes and consequences of mass extinctions
  • informs modern conservation biology by providing historical context for biodiversity loss
  • guides paleontological research by highlighting key intervals of biotic turnover
  • used in climate modeling to understand tipping points in earth systems

Patents:

NA

Potential Innovations Ideas

  • an ai system to predict future extinction risks based on big five causal patterns
  • a global monitoring network for early detection of tipping points in key ecosystems
  • educational virtual reality simulations of earth during each of the big five events
  • synthetic biology projects to engineer resilient species capable of surviving predicted future environmental stressors
  • development of geoengineering techniques with built-in ecological safeguards learned from past extinction triggers
  • a public “biodiversity health index” modeled on stock market indices
  • deep-sea robotic missions to search for “living fossils” that survived past extinctions
  • a genetic archive of all known endangered species, cryogenically preserved
  • policy frameworks for international cooperation during global ecological crises
  • advanced climate models that incorporate biotic feedback loops observed during past extinctions
Related to: big five, mass extinction, Raup, Sepkoski, Phanerozoic, biodiversity loss, paleontology, Ordovician, Permian, Cretaceous.

Historical Context

The “Big Five” Mass Extinctions

1975
1980
1980
1982
1990
1990
1990
1970
1978
1980
1980
1982
1990
1990
1990

(if date is unknown or not relevant, e.g. "fluid mechanics", a rounded estimation of its notable emergence is provided)

10th year anniversary

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