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Credible Interval

1940
  • Harold Jeffreys
Statistician analyzing Bayesian credible interval data in an office.

(generated image for illustration only)

A credible interval is the Bayesian equivalent of a frequentist confidence interval. It is a range of values that contains a parameter with a particular probability, based on the posterior probability distribution. For example, a 95% credible interval for a parameter \(\theta\) means there is a 95% probability that the true value of \(\theta\) lies within that interval, given the data and the model.

A credible interval is computed directly from the posterior probability distribution, \(p(\theta|D)\). To find a \((1-\alpha) \times 100\%\) credible interval, one identifies a region of the parameter space that contains \((1-\alpha)\) of the total probability mass of the posterior distribution. Unlike a frequentist confidence interval, its interpretation is direct and intuitive. A 95% confidence interval means that if the experiment were repeated many times, 95% of the calculated intervals would contain the true, fixed parameter value. In contrast, a 95% credible interval is a direct probabilistic statement about the single interval calculated from the observed data.

There are different ways to construct a credible interval from a posterior distribution. The most common is the highest posterior density interval (HPDI), which selects the narrowest possible interval by including all points where the posterior probability density is above a certain threshold. Another method is the equal-tailed interval, where the interval is defined by cutting off \(\alpha/2\) of the probability from each tail of the distribution. The choice depends on the shape of the posterior distribution and the specific inferential goals. The concept was popularized in the mid-20th century as part of the formalization of modern Bayesian methods.

UNESCO Nomenclature: 1208
– Statistics

Type

Abstract System

Disruption

Substantial

Usage

Widespread Use

Precursors

  • Concept of the posterior probability distribution
  • Bayesian inference framework
  • Work on interval estimation in statistics

Applications

  • Reporting uncertainty in scientific research findings
  • Risk assessment in finance and insurance
  • Quality control in manufacturing
  • Clinical trial analysis to determine treatment effectiveness
  • Polling and election forecasting

Patents:

NA

Potential Innovations Ideas

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Related to: credible interval, posterior distribution, Bayesian statistics, uncertainty quantification, parameter estimation, highest posterior density interval, HPDI, confidence interval, statistical inference, probability.

Historical Context

Credible Interval

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(if date is unknown or not relevant, e.g. "fluid mechanics", a rounded estimation of its notable emergence is provided)

Related Invention, Innovation & Technical Principles

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