FTA is a top-down, deductive failure analysis technique. It starts with a potential undesired event (the “top event”) and uses Boolean logic gates (AND, OR, etc.) to determine the combinations of component failures or human errors that could cause it. It provides a graphical model for understanding and quantifying system risk, identifying critical failure paths.
故障树分析法由贝尔实验室于20世纪60年代初开发，用于评估民兵I洲际弹道导弹（ICBM）发射控制系统的安全性。该技术后来被波音公司和美国国家航空航天局（NASA）采用并广泛应用。
The analysis process begins by defining the top event, which is a specific system failure or hazard. The analyst then works backward to identify all possible immediate causes. These causes are linked to the top event using logic gates. An ‘OR’ gate implies that any of the input 事件 is sufficient to cause the output event, while an ‘AND’ gate requires all input events to occur simultaneously. The process continues downwards, breaking down events into more fundamental causes, until basic events are reached. Basic events are typically component failures or human errors for which failure probability data is available.
故障树构建完成后，可以对其进行定性分析，识别单点故障和最小割集（导致顶层事件的基本事件的最小组合）。此外，还可以通过为基本事件分配概率，并使用布尔代数计算顶层事件发生的概率，进行定量分析。这使得故障树分析 (FTA) 成为风险评估和设计改进优先级排序的有力工具。
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